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JULY 14,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

HORROR – A Tunisian-born terrorist killed an estimated 84 people in Nice, France, today, driving a large truck down a promenade for a mile and mowing down the innocent.   He also fired a semi-automatic rifle.  The attack occurred on Bastille Day, more properly called the French National Day.  It commemorates the storming of the Bastille, a prison in Paris, in 1789, during the French Revolution.  While no claim of responsibility has been made, most terrorism experts believe the attack will be traced to ISIS.  We'll be following this closely.  The Republican convention starts Monday, and there is serious concern about what might happen outside the hall.

BERNIE ISN'T PLAYING HIS PART – From The American Mirror:   The love fest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders lasted about as long as it took to tear down the stage at their “unity” rally on Monday. Sanders gave a speech to the League of United Latin American Citizens in Washington,  DC one day after his appearance with Clinton, and he mentioned her a total of zero times.  That’s zero — with a “Z.”It wasn’t like he didn’t have time to say “Hillary Clinton.” He had 23 whole minutes.  If Clinton loses in November, there will be a bloody fight for control of the Democratic Party. 

NO V.P. CHOICE FRIDAY – Donald Trump announced that he'd name his choice for running mate on Friday at 11 a.m.  He canceled the scheduled announcement out of respect for the French terror victims.  There's no new date set, but virtually all news organizations are reporting that Trump has chosen Governor Mike Pence of Indiana, a solid conservative.  The choice should prove popular, if not exciting, among the party regulars, but vice-presidential candidates rarely make much of a difference in an election.  Trump has largely closed the polling gap with Hillary Clinton, and his chances for victory in November are no longer being written off.

July 14, 2014       Permalink

AS THE PUNDITS WERE SAYING – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:   The conventional wisdom, handed down by the Washington pundocracy, is that Donald Trump will cost the Republican Party seats in the Senate on election day.  Well...maybe not.  From McClatchy: 

The hopes of congressional Democrats that presumptive Republican Donald Trump’s presidential run will hurt incumbent Senate Republicans might be just that – hopes.

A new Qunnipiac Poll Thursday finds three incumbent Republicans in key swing states comfortably leading their Democratic challengers.

The poll shows that Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, and Rob Portman of Ohio are not only fending off their Democratic challengers but, in some cases, they’re widening their leads.

Rubio leads Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla., by 50-37 percent, a 6-point gain since Quinnipiac’s last poll of Florida voters in June. Rubio is also ahead of Rep. Alan Grayson, another potential Democratic challenger, 50-38 percent.

“Democrats made fun of Sen. Rubio when he opted for a last-minute re-election bid in Florida, but he may be on the way to the last laugh, having quickly opened double-digit leads over both Democratic challengers,” said Peter, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

In Ohio, Portman leads former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland by 47-40 percent. Quinnipiac’s survey differs from a Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll released Wednesday that showed Portman and Strickland tied at 44 percent.

In Pennsylvania, Toomey holds a double-digit advantage over Democrat Katie McGinty 49-39 percent.

COMMENT:  Goody.

July 14, 2014        Permalink

RUTHIE EATS CROW – AT 10:40 A.M. ET:  Supreme Court Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has apologized for her sharp comments about Donald Trump.  From USA Today: 

Ruth Bader Ginsburg regrets her insults of Donald Trump.

The Supreme Court justice — who has been involved in a scuffle with the presumptive Republican nominee over the past few days — apologized for her remarks and promised to stay out of it in the future.

"On reflection, my recent remarks in response to press inquiries were ill-advised and I regret making them,” Ginsburg said in a statement. "Judges should avoid commenting on a candidate for public office. In the future I will be more circumspect."

In three separate interviews the justice sounded off on Trump, at one point saying she didn't “want to contemplate” the effects a Trump candidacy would have on the court. Ginsburg is known for her liberal bent, but the comments created a firestorm nonetheless because members of the Supreme Court generally avoid getting involved in presidential politics.

Trump called on her to resign from her post and said “her mind is shot!”

But he wasn’t the only one unhappy with the remarks: Ginsburg received widespread (and bipartisan) criticism, even earning editorials from both The New York Times and TheWashington Post.

COMMENT:  There's a time to get off the stage, and Ruthie's time has come.   Her apology is appropriate but, should Trump become president, any action before the Supreme Court that involves his policies will make her opinions suspect.  She's cooked.

July 14, 2014       Permalink

ANOTHER BLOW TO HILLARY – AT 9:57 A.M. ET:  A new New York Times/CBS News poll shows the presidential race dead even.  This poll is no better than any other, but it carries the Times and CBS names, and is thus widely consulted.  From The New York Times: 

Hillary Clinton has emerged from the F.B.I. investigation into her email practices as secretary of state a wounded candidate with a large and growing majority of voters saying she cannot be trusted, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

As Mrs. Clinton prepares to accept the Democratic Party’s nomination at the convention in Philadelphia this month, she will confront an electorate in which 67 percent of voters say she is not honest and trustworthy. That number is up five percentage points from a CBS News poll conducted last month, before the F.B.I. released its findings.

Mrs. Clinton’s six-percentage-point lead over the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, in a CBS News poll last month has evaporated. The two candidates are now tied in a general election matchup, the new poll indicates, with each receiving the support of 40 percent of voters.

Any single poll is but a snapshot, and many other polls show Mrs. Clinton with a narrow but consistent lead over Mr. Trump. The Times/CBS News survey was conducted shortly after the release of the F.B.I. report on her email practices that suggested they were imprudent but not illegal. The damage from those revelations may or may not prove lasting.

COMMENT:  True, the polls can change dramatically.  I've seen some new anti-Trump ads that are devastating and effective, using Trump's own foolish quotes, in his own voice.  The one person who can defeat Donald Trump is Donald Trump.

But the one person who can defeat Hillary Clinton is Hillary Clinton, and she is doing a good job.

Both conventions are coming up.  The GOP meets Monday.  Veep choices are coming up.  Let's check the polls in three weeks or so.

July 14,  2014     Permalink

JULY 13,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

UNBELIEVABLE – FROM BRITAIN'S EXPRESS:    Number 10’s newest occupant has received calls from leaders in Germany, France and Ireland but has so far heard nothing from America’s outgoing White House chief.  German chancellor Angela Merkel was the first leader to phone Mrs May when she called from Kyrgyzstan to applaud David Cameron’s successor.  France’s president Francois Hollande called the Prime Minister to wish her well in the new role and discussed with Mrs May the importance of maintaining a close relationship between Britain and France.  And the Irish Taoiseach Enda Kenny also spoke with Theresa May as he offered to visit London soon to discuss the ties between the two leaders’ countries.  Obama is a petty man, and goes out of his way to prove it.

SPEAKING OF BRITAIN – Boris Johnson, the pro-American former mayor of London, has just been named foreign secretary in the cabinet of Britain's new conservative prime minister, Theresa May.  In 2007, Johnson described Hillary Clinton as follows:  “She’s got dyed blonde hair and pouty lips, and a steely blue stare, like a sadistic nurse in a mental hospital …”  Ah, it takes a Brit to get it just right.  The only virtue of Hillary Clinton being elected is to have us watch her greeting Boris at the White House.

FRIDAY AT 11 – Donald Trump will announce his choice for vice-presidential running mate Friday at 11 a.m. ET.  Most presumably informed pundits believe that it's now a race between Indiana Governor Mike Pence and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, with the outside chance that Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey could still be in the running.  Vice-presidential announcements are greeted with great fanfare, but, in truth, they usually have little effect on the presidential race.  The last time I think there was a proved effect was 1960, when Lyndon Johnson's presence on John F. Kennedy's ticket helped Kennedy carry Johnson's home state of Texas.  It's often said that the role of the vice presidential candidate is to stay out of trouble.

July 13,  2016     Permalink

A LOSS FOR ISIS? – AT 10:25 A.M. ET:  ISIS has suffered military setbacks recently, and may be preparing to give up, temporarily, its "caliphate."  But never count ISIS out.  From Fox, via the New York Post: 

Islamic State terror leaders reportedly are preparing for the fall of its so-called caliphate after the US-led coalition and Russian-backed forces made significant gains in recent months in Iraq and Syria.

The Washington Post reported Tuesday that the terror group’s leaders in Syria are bracing for its strongholds to fall, but vow to continue its wave of terror attacks abroad. US counterterrorism experts believe the recent large-scale attacks in Istanbul and Baghdad are a sign that its reign in the Middle East is dwindling.

Experts still believe that even if the terrorists affiliated with ISIS start to move underground, the group will still remain dangerous abroad.

“Where al Qaeda was hierarchical and somewhat controlled, these guys are not. They have all the energy and unpredictability of a populist movement,” retired Air Force Gen. Michael Hayden told the Washington Post.

ISIS officials still believe that its vision of a “caliphate” across the Middle East is still viable despite its losses across the region it claims. One also insisted that the group had “shifted some of our command, media and wealth structure to different countries.”

COMMENT:  Armed factions are often most dangerous when they are nearing defeat, for they fight fanatically.  The United States suffered its highest casualty rate in World War II in 1945, the last year of the war.  The Japanese and Germans were fighting on their home territory, and fought to the death.

Islamic fanaticism will continue, with or without ISIS.

July 13, 2016       Permalink 

SHUT UP MADAM JUSTICE – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg of the United States Supreme Court has unloaded on Donald Trump, and neither Republicans nor Democrats are happy about it.  Getting involved in politics is simply not what judges do, especially judges on the nation's highest court.  From Fox: 

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg faced a growing and bipartisan backlash Wednesday -- including a call from Donald Trump to resign -- as she doubled down on her criticism of the presumptive GOP nominee, calling him a “faker” who is unqualified to be president.

Even political figures and newspaper editorial writers who might agree with the comments swiftly said they were out of line for a high court justice.

The liberal icon justice had kicked off the storm with comments to The New York Times published Saturday. “I can’t imagine what this place would be — I can’t imagine what the country would be -- with Donald Trump as our president. For the country, it could be four years. For the court, it could be -- I don’t even want to contemplate that,” she said.

She doubled down late Monday, telling CNN: “He is a faker."

"He has no consistency about him. He says whatever comes into his head at the moment. He really has an ego. ... How has he gotten away with not turning over his tax returns? The press seems to be very gentle with him on that," she said.

Trump swiftly responded Tuesday, telling the Times it was “highly inappropriate that a United States Supreme Court judge gets involved in a political campaign”

“I think it’s a disgrace to the court and I think she should apologize to the court. I couldn’t believe it when I saw it,” the presumptive Republican nominee said.

Trump’s criticisms were echoed by Republican congressional leaders. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday Ginsburg’s comments were "totally inappropriate.”

"It raises a level of skepticism that the American people have from time to time about just how objective the Supreme Court is, whether they're over there to call the balls and strikes, or weigh in on one side or another," he said.

House Speaker Paul Ryan used similar language at a CNN event Tuesday.

"For someone on the Supreme Court who is going to be calling balls and strikes in the future based upon whatever the next president and Congress does, that strikes me as inherently biased and out of the realm," Ryan said.

Ginsburg’s comments also left Democratic lawmakers squirming.

“We all know that the justices on the Supreme Court have political views. I’m not sure we’re well served by them airing them out in the open,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., told Politico.

“She may have got out over her skis a little bit and more forthright and political than she should have been. It’s very unusual,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., told the outlet.

COMMENT:  Grossly improper.  She's 83, and some people will cut her some slack, but maybe it's time to go.  She has compromised even the appearance of neutrality.  Please remember that the 2000 election, Bush versus Gore, wound up in the Supreme Court.  If something like that happens this year, Ginsburg would certainly have to recuse herself to maintain the Court's credibility...but she might refuse.  Age might have its privileges, but being on the Supreme Court is not one of them.

July 13, 2016       Permalink   

TRUMP ROMPS – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  Donald Trump is rising rapidly in the polls.  The rise comes just when he needs it, in the week before the Republican convention.  The numbers will bolster his case against the anti-Trump movement that hopes to derail his nomination when Republicans meet in Cleveland next week.  From The Hill:

Donald Trump has overtaken Hillary Clinton in Florida and has a lead in the swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a new poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University.

Trump leads Clinton, 42 to 39 percent, in Florida in the latest Quinnipiac University poll. That's an 11-point swing from last month, when Clinton led, 47 to 39 percent.

Trump has also retaken the lead from Clinton in Pennsylvania, where he now leads her, 43 to 41 percent. Last month, Clinton held a slim lead, 42 to 41 percent.

The pair remains tied in Ohio, where Republicans will gather to formally nominate Trump at a convention in Cleveland next week. Trump and Clinton each get 41 percent apiece there. In the poll last month, each won 40 percent.

The shift in the polls comes after a tough week on the campaign trail for Clinton, who dodged criminal charges from the FBI over her use of a private email server as secretary of state but was criticized harshly by FBI Director James Comey.

Clinton has had difficulty in winning over voters throughout the election, and Comey's remarks were further ammunition for Trump and Republicans to attack her trustworthiness.

"While there is no definite link between Clinton's drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

COMMENT:  I'm not so sure that being seen with Bernie Sanders is helping Hillary.  Bernie may be the darling of the leftist intellectuals and some in the press, but he's widely regarded as a fringe figure. 

It's being reported that Hillary is vetting retired Navy Admiral James Stavridis, dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts, for vice president.  I don't know whether this is one of those planned leaks, designed to strengthen Hillary's national security cred, or the real thing.  It would be a fascinating choice, though.

July 13,  2016     Permalink